报告题目：Hiding in the Herd? Political Uncertainty and Strategic Risk Attribution in Disclosures
报告人： 林秉旋 教授（美国罗德岛大学）
时间：2026年3月12日10:00-11:30
地点：管理学院A南217
报告内容摘要：
In the United States, mandatory reporting and market concerns force managers to speak even during periods of turmoil. We examine how managers respond to this constraint by changing the locus of risk attribution in Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Using large language model embeddings and supervised neural network learning, we construct a disclosure-implied systematic risk share (SRS) that links narrative semantics to the systematic component of post-disclosure return variance. We find that political uncertainty causes a “hiding in the herd” response, where managers increasingly attribute risk to market-wide headwinds rather than firm-specific factors. We validate that SRS tracks the structural source of risk using a mirror-image test: when political shocks are firm-specific (i.e., the U.S.-China trade war), attribution shifts to idiosyncratic factors, thereby reducing SRS. The use of systematic attribution is exacerbated by short-term reporting pressure and poor monitoring and is mainly driven by salient policy debates in trade and healthcare.
【报告人简介】
林秉旋，现为美国罗德岛大学金融学教授，威廉艾根讲席教授，美国乔治亚州立大学金融学博士。研究领域主要包括企业并购、公司治理、信息披露、中国资本市场以及行为金融等领域，已在Journal of Corporate Finance、Journal of Accounting and Public Policy、Journal of Business Finance and Accounting、Journal of Accounting Literature、British Accounting Review、Accounting Horizons、《经济研究》、《管理科学学报》、《金融研究》以及《会计研究》等国内外一流学术期刊发表论文50余篇。林秉旋教授具有丰富的实践与研究经验和广泛的学术影响力，其著作多次获奖。林教授目前是Journal of Accounting and Public Policy和China Journal of Accounting Research的编委会成员，担任中南财经政法大学、首都经济贸易大学和中国海洋大学的特聘教授。曾担任Journal of Accounting and Public Policy、European Journal of Finance客座主编和中山大学、中国矿业大学特聘教授。
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